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Taking Stock of Indian Reality, Analyse The Possible Impact Of Recent Moves By Govt And RBI
The recent initiatives taken by the central government to beat the slow down and boost the demand in the real estate sector has come as a welcome sign for the market. As a follow up to the RBI measures to ease liquidity, finance minister P Chidambaram recently appealed to developers to cut prices which evoked a mixed response. The developers are asking a few more actions in return. While the consumer sits on the fence watching the proceedings and waiting for favorable answers to his questions -will he be able to buy a house? Will the prices reduce? To get closer to the answer one needs to analyse the possible impact of the recent moves by the government and RBI.
Flash back
The opening act
The RBI rate cut
A few other steps By Mr Chitranjan, Section News Posted on Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 10:45:30 PM EST
The CRR- the proportion of amount banks have to park with the RBI- cut means banks will have to park lesser amount with central bank and will have more amount at heir disposal, i.e. for lending.
RBI cut CRR by 3.5 percentage points to 5.5 per cent over last 2 months. The Repo rate is the rate at which the banks borrow from the RBI. If this rate is lower , bank can pass on the funds to the loan seeker at lower rate of interest. RBI cut this by 1.5 percentage points to 6.5 per cent.
A few other steps
Not-so-good effect As far as the CRR and Repo rate effect is concerned, most private banks were reluctant to reduce the lending and home loan rates. Despite having larger chunk of fund available, the nationalised banks also played safe in these times of turmoil. Though they got the reduction of 1.5 per cent, they passed on only half of this advantage onto the consumer. The rate of interest for housing loan has been reduced by only 0.75 to 1.0 per cent till date. The average rate of interest is in between 11.5 to 112.5 per cent as of today.
FM proposal The cost to the developer includes three main component, cost of land, construction and money (finance). In most cases, the land is bought long back and at reasonable prices .The reduction in prices of steel and cement has been advantageous as construction cost decreased. With the RBI initiatives, the cost of money will also reduce and so it was expected that the developers should reduce the prices of their products. "Cutting prices is a much better option than allowing inventories to built up NPA, lay-offs and retrenchment and digging a deeper hole.'' he said keeping in mind the probable impact of the profit-margin graph in the sector the real estate sector as the profit margin graph of this sector is quite good.
The profit margin graph
The reactions However, KP Singh, the chairman of DLF gives a negative opinion. "There are no takers for housing. However, prices are correcting itself when necessary. Government should ensure larger supply of housing then the prices will come down." A builder from Pune asks pointed questions the statements made by the FM. "If government is so keen on reducing the prices, why it is not waiving or reducing some fees and taxes on housing? We are told to reduce the prices and they are thinking of increasing stamp duty? What about our investors? What should we tell those buyers who booked the flats at the earlier price?" he questions.
The last mile However, no one is sure of property price reduction. No one is taking a clear stand on it either. People are seeing political undertones and election oriented moves in all these. No body seems to care much about the genuine home seekers. Everybody is predicting a further reduction in interest rate as the result of another round of CRR and Repo Rate reduction by RBI in coming days. But still the million Rupee question remains unanswered, will these bring down the prices to a level where one can buy a house of his own?
Source: Anshumali Ruparel From Express Esate 22/Nov/2008
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