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Capital Goods, Banks And Real Estate In Hit List, But Recover

It has been a roller coaster ride for the stock market in the past three months. Stocks plunged, and then recouped a significant portion of their losses. The three worst-affected sectors during this period have been capital goods, banks and realty.

On May 2, the aggregate market capitalisation of the three sectors was over Rs 12 lakh crore -- a little less than a third of India's gross domestic product last year. In the following two months, the shareholders of the leading companies in the three sectors lost over a third of their wealth. The sell-off was triggered by deterioration in macro-economic indicators and investor concerns about future economic growth.

Worst hit have been shareholders of real estate companies, whose wealth nearly halved during the period. Market capitalisation of real estate companies dipped by almost Rs 1,40,000 crore -- equivalent to the turnover of Reliance Industries in FY08. The proxy for the real estate sector was understandably DLF, which saw its share price decline from Rs 727 to Rs 394, a decline of 46%.

Banking and capital goods shares too fell sharply, losing 40% and 29% of the value, respectively. Share price of Bhel, the benchmark for the capital goods sector, fell 29%, while SBI shares have been down 40%. The reasons for the severe impact on these sectors are on account of the correlation of these industries with the benchmark indices. Capital goods, banks and real estate possess a very high beta to the index. This means that when market performs poorly, the impact on these sectors is even greater. So, while the Sensex dipped 28% in the period, capital goods, banks and real estate crashed 29%, 40% and 50%, respectively.

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By Sumit Kumar, Section SEBI & Share Market
Posted on Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 01:59:44 AM EST
Since July 16, the market has shown a steady recovery with the benchmark Sensex rising by 20%. Market capitalisation of the three sectors is up by nearly a quarter or Rs 2 lakh crore. The companies will have to regain more market cap to fully recover losses as the low-base effect magnifies the upswing. Real estate companies are up by a third from their lowest levels in July 2008. DLF market cap increased by almost 40% to Rs 545. However, the stock still need to rise by another 30% to fully recover the value.

Similarly banks, which had lost 40% of their stock price have witnessed a smart recovery in the last three weeks. SBI, whose stock price had fallen by 38%, has seen its share price rise from Rs 1,136 to Rs 1518 -- a rise by a third. Companies in the capital goods space have also posted impressive performances. Bhel, after having its stock beaten down to Rs 1,378, has shown a resurgence, rising to Rs 1,828. The company share price has also risen by one-third in the period when the Sensex increased by a fifth.

As previously mentioned, the high beta of the sectors ensures that during harsh times, the industry gets severely impacted but during a rally or bull-run, these sectors make smart recovery. The 20% gain in the Sensex resulted in the performance of capital goods, banks and real estate posting higher returns at 22%, 33% and 33% respectively.

Source:L Economic Times, 08-08-08

< SEBI Plans Review Of Rules Relating To Issuance Of Participatory Notes (PNs) At Its Board Meet | Mother Of All IPOs Coming, BSNL Moved A Step Ahead With Govt Be The Largest In Indian Corp History >

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